Taking a look at the world in the year 2030

We support "Initiative 2030" of the Young Global Leaders with a metastudy

As part of their "Initiative 2030", approximately 400 young leaders from all over the world are working on a vision for a better future. The Young Global Leaders (YGL) program was created in 2004 by the World Economic Forum. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants is supporting the YGL as lead partner and compiled the metastudy "Trend Compendium 2030" in preparation for the workshop.

Dr. Manfred Reichl, former Senior Partner at Roland Berger, is today Chief Mentor of the Young Global Leaders. He explains, "With this metastudy, we wanted to define today's challenges faced by key industries. From that, we hoped to derive practical solutions for our future." Teams in the fields of health, environment, education, global governance and security as well as development and poverty developed scenarios for their particular area. For the meeting, Roland Berger identified several global meta-trends that are expected to continue into the future.

Population development

In the next 23 years, the world's population will reach 8.3 billion people. This growth will slow down some (from 1% today to about 0.75% annually), and regional differences will become more pronounced. Whereas the population figures in African countries will continue increasing virtually unabated, growth in China will level off by 2030. With over 1.5 billion inhabitants, India will be the most populous nation on earth in 2030. Its population should surpass that of China in 2025, expected at that point to number 1.46 billion people.

While growth rates in developing countries will continue past 2050, the opposite will be true for the Northern Hemisphere. The number of people in countries such as Japan, Germany or Italy is already on the decline. Russia is expected to lose some 20 million inhabitants by 2030. In contrast, Great Britain and the USA will continue to experience population growth in 2030 due to immigration.

Slower population growth and increasingly longer life expectancy are leading to a rapid aging of the population around the world. Global average age will rise from 28 to 34 years. By 2030, 4.9 billion people – more than 60% of the global population – will live in cities. This figure will be as high as 90% in developing countries. These increases won't be seen so much in what are known as mega-cities, but rather cities with about 500,000 residents.

Economies

The largest economies in the world are the USA, Japan and Germany. In 23 years, China will push the USA down to second place, with India rising to third. The reasons for Asia's rapid ascent are found in the above-average growth rates in the region. For example, India's economy will grow by 272% in 23 years, China's by 243% and Indonesia's by 199%. Next to Asia, North Africa will become one of the main growth regions. The volume of world trade will also increase dramatically – from USD 13.6 trillion today to 50.5 trillion in 2030.

Although there will be a rising number of people to feed, and demand for energy from plant material will increase, the importance off agriculture will decrease overall. The industry's share of GDP will not change significantly. Services will be a growth driver practically everywhere. The service sector will expand rapidly, especially in China, India and other boom countries.

Companies in the year 2030

Over the next 23 years, companies will become even more global. Today, only a relatively small proportion of companies have a global presence. However, by 2030, most corporations will have made their organizational structures and processes more flexible and global. In the near future, it will be quite normal for employees to work in cross-border virtual teams. Collaboration with competitors, especially in resource-intensive areas like research and development, will also become the norm.

Continually changing framework conditions demand that employees be flexible and undergo constant professional training and development. Companies must find new ways of finding, developing and retaining new employees. This is especially important in places such as Japan, Europe and North America, whose populations are aging rapidly and shrinking. The 50+ age group will therefore gain in importance.

To respond to these new requirements, companies are already beginning to collaborate with universities, schools and research institutes. In the process, side issues such as corporate social responsibility (CSR) will gain more attention. Consumers, investors and employees will increasingly make decisions for or against a company based on its commitment to society and the environment.

Not only will companies act in a more socially conscious way, but the pressure from institutional investors, such as government funds, private equity firms and hedge funds, will increase further. Completely independent companies will be found less often in the coming 23 years. For this reason, top management will work not only to increase the company's success, but also to maintain the company's independence.