Three questions on the crisis
think: act CONTENT
2009
In November 2008, we were bold enough to present three scenarios for the economic crisis and offer our assessment of how developments would unfold. We argued that the duration and intensity of the crisis depends on getting financial markets working again and on governments making effective interventions. Back in winter, it was not yet clear how hard individual industries would be hit by the downturn and how the BRIC states would react to the crisis.
Since then, the uncertainty has, if anything, grown. The economic analysts are coming up with widely different forecasts. For the German economy alone, predictions range from a moderate 1.5% decline to a severe 7% contraction. In the global picture, we are seeing political unrest spreading and a financial sector still a long way from safety. But on the positive side, a string of governments have acted quickly. And so far at least, there has not been a new wave of protectionism. Economic stimulus packages, like the Chinese program, do appear to be making an initial impact.
So we have decided to revisit our three scenarios from last year and bring them up to date.
We address three central questions:
- How deep will the downturn ultimately go?
- How long will the crisis last?
- How strongly will the upturn kick in?
