Crisis scenarios
How the crisis has developed so far
The Roland Berger crisis scenario claims that while key indicators like oil price, global exports and business climate indices are pointing to recovery and stock markets are looking up, there is no reason to let down your guard. Not all late indicators have bottomed out, many causes of the crisis have not yet been removed, and protectionism also has not been banished yet.
V curve still the most likely
Our three scenarios – the V, U and L curves – suggest how the crisis could further unfold. At this moment, the V scenario is the most likely on a global scale. Even at best, however, it will still be four quarters until pre-crisis growth levels will be reached again.
Nine development parameters and regional calculations
How things will play out exactly will depend on nine parameters – the banking sector, bailout programs, protectionism, monetary policy, unemployment, psychological factors, the oil price, structural strengths and the progress of economic engines like the U.S., China, and Russia.
The crisis scenario describes the characteristics of each of the nine parameters for the V, U and L curves, respectively. The document also points to important differences in regional development by presenting individual scenario calculations for the U.S., China, Germany and Russia up to 2012.
The Roland Berger crisis scenario claims that while key indicators like oil price, global exports and business climate indices are pointing to recovery and stock markets are looking up, there is no reason to let down your guard. Not all late indicators have bottomed out, many causes of the crisis have not yet been removed, and protectionism also has not been banished yet.
V curve still the most likely
Our three scenarios – the V, U and L curves – suggest how the crisis could further unfold. At this moment, the V scenario is the most likely on a global scale. Even at best, however, it will still be four quarters until pre-crisis growth levels will be reached again.
Nine development parameters and regional calculations
How things will play out exactly will depend on nine parameters – the banking sector, bailout programs, protectionism, monetary policy, unemployment, psychological factors, the oil price, structural strengths and the progress of economic engines like the U.S., China, and Russia.
The crisis scenario describes the characteristics of each of the nine parameters for the V, U and L curves, respectively. The document also points to important differences in regional development by presenting individual scenario calculations for the U.S., China, Germany and Russia up to 2012.
Language
English | German
Download "Roland Berger crisis scenarios"
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