Which industries in Germany will disappear?
"And I predict that industries we have already written off will be resurrected"
Which industries in Germany will disappear? In an interview with the German business magazine "WirtschaftsWoche", Burkhard Schwenker talks on changes in the German business landscape.
Mr. Schwenker, technological progress has sounded the death knell for products such as horse-drawn carriages and typesetting machines. What else do you think is under threat in the next 20 years?
The way you put it, it sounds like progress is a threat. The opposite is true: it is an opportunity for economic growth and a better life. Green tech and medical technology are just two examples.
But at some time entire industries will disappear along with their products...
...not necessarily. Even if a product disappears due to technological progress, the underlying need remains. Let us take your examples of the horse-drawn carriage and typesetting machine: the underlying needs are for mobility and information – both of which are greater than ever. Needs only change over very long periods.
You're avoiding the question, so once again, which industries will disappear?
There is no real answer to that. Any such predictions are usually completely wrong. My most off-target prediction dates back to the 1980s when I was an assistant to the managerial board of a paper manufacturer: I thought that the then-new information technology would bring about the paperless office. The opposite happened: with each technical innovation, paper consumption increased. The only certainty is that industries will change considerably, such as the energy industry or consumer electronics. And I predict that industries we have already written off will be resurrected, such as coal mining – not to supply fossil fuels, but to supply coal derivatives for producing other materials.
Globalization is one reason whole industries in Germany are under threat.
What you are talking about is the natural relocation of labor-intensive industries. That remains an ongoing issue, but for us it is less dramatic than it seems at first sight. One of our studies shows that the trend of offshoring production to low-wage countries is being more than made up for – through new, increasingly complex products and through joint business in which the product is linked to high-value services, such as engineering services for wind turbines.
Mr. Schwenker, technological progress has sounded the death knell for products such as horse-drawn carriages and typesetting machines. What else do you think is under threat in the next 20 years?
The way you put it, it sounds like progress is a threat. The opposite is true: it is an opportunity for economic growth and a better life. Green tech and medical technology are just two examples.
But at some time entire industries will disappear along with their products...
...not necessarily. Even if a product disappears due to technological progress, the underlying need remains. Let us take your examples of the horse-drawn carriage and typesetting machine: the underlying needs are for mobility and information – both of which are greater than ever. Needs only change over very long periods.
You're avoiding the question, so once again, which industries will disappear?
There is no real answer to that. Any such predictions are usually completely wrong. My most off-target prediction dates back to the 1980s when I was an assistant to the managerial board of a paper manufacturer: I thought that the then-new information technology would bring about the paperless office. The opposite happened: with each technical innovation, paper consumption increased. The only certainty is that industries will change considerably, such as the energy industry or consumer electronics. And I predict that industries we have already written off will be resurrected, such as coal mining – not to supply fossil fuels, but to supply coal derivatives for producing other materials.
Globalization is one reason whole industries in Germany are under threat.
What you are talking about is the natural relocation of labor-intensive industries. That remains an ongoing issue, but for us it is less dramatic than it seems at first sight. One of our studies shows that the trend of offshoring production to low-wage countries is being more than made up for – through new, increasingly complex products and through joint business in which the product is linked to high-value services, such as engineering services for wind turbines.
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