"Truck Powertrain 2020": A combination and coexistence of technologies is indispensible for mastering the CO2 challenge

• More than 50 in-depth interviews with top executives and industry experts around the globe
• Commercial vehicles industry is expected to reduce new vehicle CO2 emissions by up to 30% until 2020
• Solely a combination and coexistence of technologies can achieve this goal
• Hybrid technology will enable CO2 emissions savings up to 30 % in urban routes, depending on the technology
• Diesel remains the main energy source, though addition of alternative fuels is expected to further increase

New regulations are expected to enforce reduction of new vehicle fleet CO2 emissions until 2020. A reduction target of up to 30% is regarded realistic. Therefore, an immediate development of new alternative technologies and radical changes in vehicle design are exigently needed. However, the required reduction will not only result from new powertrain technologies, as some further vehicle improvement (e.g. aerodynamics) will also contribute considerably to the reduction of CO2 emission. Among the new alternative technologies, only hybrids will play a significant role until 2020. Nevertheless, none of these technologies, such as hybrid/electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells or alternative fuels, alone would be sufficient to meet expected CO2 targets. Thus, a technologies mix, varying according to the region and vehicle segment, is needed. These are the findings of the new Roland Berger study "Truck Powertrain 2020 – Mastering the CO2-Challenge".

"The development of new alternative powertrain technologies is indispensable for reducing dependency on oil and limit the greenhouse gases effect", says Norbert Dressler, Partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. "Solely the introduction of hybrid and electric powertrains, fuel cells and alternative fuels as well as further optimization of conventional ICE-powertrains and vehicle improvements will make the required CO2 reduction possible." A wide range of potential powertrain technologies is available to cope with the expected governmental emission targets, but not all technologies will reach the stage of mass production. "External parameters, such as lobbying, technological development in other industries and the smart use of alliances will decide on the future technology mix within the commercial vehicle industry."

Hybrid will establish in certain segments until 2020

To achieve the ambitious targets of IEA, all industry sectors will be affected. Due to the interest of city councils in green vehicles, a broad introduction of hybrid in the city bus and city truck segment is expected until 2020. The intercity truck segment is also expected to participate in this trend, though to a lesser degree. By contrast, regarding the long-haul segment, vehicle improvements such as aerodynamics are considered as a key factor to reduce CO2 emissions in both triad and BRIC markets.

All industry stakeholders need to play an active role

According to the study, OEMs and suppliers in triad markets need to establish alliances to minimize the R&D expenses to develop CO2 emission reducing technologies. Furthermore, OEMs and suppliers need to define global standards for components, such as batteries, in order to achieve significant volumes in the market and reduce system costs.
Suppliers and OEMs in the BRIC markets will be confronted with similar issues as in triad markets. In fact, they have to decide, whether they want to be front runners/innovators and profit from the early market entrance or be followers, and thus minimize cost and risks, by adopting proven technologies. Finally, governments are expected not only to establish adequate CO2 targets, but also to create incentives for customers and to change existing regulations where necessary in order to allow for maximum reduction potential.

Combination of technologies is expected

The authors draws the conclusion that none of the most promising technologies currently available can sufficiently reduce new vehicle CO2 emissions before 2020 – at least, not in isolation. Consequently, a coexistence of technologies, varying according to the region and the commercial vehicle segment, will be the single acceptable solution of the CO2 challenge.
Nevertheless, the required CO2 emission reduction will not only result from the new powertrain technologies. More precisely, vehicle improvements could reduce new vehicle fleet CO2 emissions in the long-haul segment by 15 % or more, with investment return in less than three years. These include aerodynamic features such as cab spoilers, side skirts and base flaps as well as low rolling resistance tires. Regarding conventional ICE-powertrain improvements, technologies in triad markets have already been optimized to large degree. Hence, "limited further improvements of about 5% can be achieved", says Wolfgang Bernhart, Partner with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. The ICE-powertrains in BRIC markets will be able to heavily profit from proven technologies in triad markets and thus can reduce vehicle CO2 emissions by 10-20% at lower costs. Hybrid technology shows very promising results, as it will e.g. enable fuel consumption savings up to 30% in the city truck segment by 2020. Pure electric vehicles will play a role e.g. in the city bus segment by the end of the decade, whereas, fuel cells still face tremendous cost challenges. Concerning the future of alternative fuels, Dressler concludes "although alternative fuels will be of extreme importance for the reduction of CO2 emission, diesel will remain the main energy source until 2020".

Bernhart adds: "It is the task of OEMs and suppliers to address the upcoming challenge, to define the appropriate implementation strategy and set the right circumstances now in order to secure future long-term success within the commercial vehicle industry."