The European rail industry will remain the world leader: growth expected to reach 2.7% each year for the next six years

• Growth on the global market will be stable up through 2017
• The global supplier market of the rail industry will grow by 2.7% annually over the next six years
• Above-average growth will be seen in signal technology (3.2% p.a.) and services (2.9% p.a.)
• Regions expecting the strongest growth are the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and CIS

The world rail market will see steady growth up through 2017. This is the central finding of a global market study conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants for the Association of the European Rail Industry (UNIFE). Regions seeing the strongest growth are the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and other CIS countries. Growth in these regions will more than offset the slowdown of rail investments in China, where however there is now a new focus on urban rail.

The world rail market remains stable despite the economic downturn, reveals the fourth edition of the UNIFE World Rail Market Study, presented on September 18, 2012 at the InnoTrans fair in Berlin.

"The study registered stability in growth despite economic downturn in the past years. The world market has grown by 3.2% in each of the past three years – that is a remarkable achievement considering public funds are less available due to the financial crisis, which started in 2008," said Philippe Citroën, UNIFE Director-General.

The world rail supply market is still forecast to grow by 2.7% each year over the next six years. "We expect growth in all market segments: rail vehicles, infrastructure, signal technology and services," explains Andreas Schwilling, Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and co-author of the study. Above-average growth will be enjoyed by signal technology (3.2% p.a.) and services (2.9% p.a.), specifically maintenance and repair.

While investment in the Chinese high-speed highway and rail market, a key driver of growth in the past few years, has been slowing down, other regions are investing more in their rail systems. One example is the Gulf region, with large projects such as the Doha Metro, the new Mecca mass transit system, and the Mecca-Medina high-speed link.

Another growth hotspot is Latin America, as a result of large orders coming from Brazil for rail freight and urban transport systems. Other large-scale orders are expected from neighboring countries such as Argentina and Chile.

"The major markets will still be Europe and Asia," says Schwilling. "The accessible market volume in Europe will grow by more than 2% each year. Asia will stay at the high level it's been at in recent years. With incoming orders worth EUR 45 billion in Europe and EUR 26 billion in Asia, these two regions will account for nearly 60% of the accessible global market up through 2017. That's just a few percentage points fewer than today."

"Looking at the quality and quantity of existing and projected orders, the European rail industry is certain to retain a leading market position against other competitors," concludes Citroën. "The increased demand for high-tech product in sectors such as signal technology, for instance, gives us reason to believe that the innovative head start of the European rail industry can certainly be retained over the next few years."

The launched study is the fourth edition of the UNIFE World Rail Market Study, which is published biennially. It was conducted by Roland Berger Consultants and published by DVV Media Group in collaboration with InnoTrans.