Clean Hydrogen Radar - Q1 2024

By Uwe Weichenhain, Yvonne Ruf, Matthias Nagl, Markus Kaufmann and Christopher Schmitt

This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We have updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 02.05.2024.

Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.

Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean hydrogen. Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.

The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.

What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?

Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the hydrogen economy. The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:

• Hydrogen strategies and national targets
  Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
• Regulatory developments
  Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
• Upstream market
  Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
• Midstream market
  Developments in the transportation and storage of hydrogen
• Downstream market
  News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)

In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!

Highlights from the Q1 2024 update

In Q1 2024, we saw new promising announcements along the entire hydrogen value chain, including major policy plans and project investments. However, there is uncertainty all around, and projects are being delayed or canceled since developers fail to develop a commercially viable business case. This puts pressure on the supply chain since equipment orders are lower than expected.

Some important signposts:

• The European Commission agrees to use EUR 6.9 bn of its IPCEI fund (Hy2infra) for green hydrogen projects.
• Egypt issues seven memoranda of understanding for green hydrogen projects worth USD 40 bn.
• The US Treasury releases a draft for tax credit for clean hydrogen production, leading to controversial discussions.
• Major developers and investors defer their hydrogen targets by 3-5 years due to slower-than-expected progress of the hydrogen industry.
• Hydrogen fuel cell bus orders are on the rise, while fuel cell passenger cars are struggling in Europe and North America.

Our hydrogen project database currently includes 480 GW of green hydrogen production capacity. By 2030, we expect less than 120 GW to be installed.

What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?

Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.

We look forward to hearing from you!

Stay current with our latest insights on sustainability and climate action topics. We will email you when new articles and studies are published.