US and German automakers still lead the field when it comes to autonomous driving. What will be crucial for the future, however, is how governments shape the legal framework for test vehicles and type approval of self-driving vehicles in their individual countries. That's because, as the technology evolves, the main focus will be on testing the vehicles in real-life conditions – and that is what makes this aspect one of the key criteria determining a country's attractiveness. This is among the findings of the latest edition of the "Automated Vehicles Index" which sees Roland Berger and Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen Aachen (fka) analyze on a regular basis the competitive positions of the relevant automotive nations.

Munich, January 24, 2018

"This past year we have seen a renewed and significant increase in activity in the field of automated driving," notes Wolfgang Bernhart, partner at Roland Berger, explaining the significance of this development: "Automotive OEMs, suppliers and technology companies are now racing to bring to market the first highly automated vehicles for use on urban roads." Almost all OEMs now offer more driver assistance functions than they did at the time the last "Automated Vehicles Index" was published. German carmakers managed to defend their leading position here and now offer ADAS in almost all vehicle categories. Most other OEMs, by contrast, restrict the technology to certain categories of vehicles or specific types of functions.

That said, the crucial advantage in the race to achieve full automation will be found in developing the technology and testing it in real-life conditions on the roads. "The vehicle algorithms need to be trained," explains Christian Burkard from fka. "Even though more than 95 percent of that can be done in a virtual environment, real test vehicles still need to go out on the roads," he points out, adding, "The sooner the systems are put into commercial use in vehicles, the sooner they will be able to evolve. And the outcome of that will be a self-reinforcing effect which companies can use to build up a dominant position in the market."

Legislation in the United States bolsters the country's leading role
American automakers are enjoying great success in this area thanks to the support of the regulatory framework within which they operate: "Unlike in Germany and Europe, legislation in the United States already permits highly automated vehicles to be used in a commercial context," says Bernhart. "Type approval procedures are uncomplicated, which makes it possible to put together fleets of test vehicles numbering in the hundreds – many times more than European regulators plan to permit." It is therefore very likely that the majority of the road tests planned or already underway will be in the United States. Consequently, US companies are fully expected to be able to further expand their leading position in this technology sector and even more high-tech companies will undoubtedly set up shop in the country.

The study authors predict that Germany will for the time being hold on to its position as a pioneer in the technology and knowledge transfer involved in this sector. But that alone is no guarantee that the country will actually play a leading role in the highly automated mobility of the future. As fka expert Burkard explains, "The legislation will need to keep pace with the latest research and development if Germany is to keep up with the United States in the automated driving sphere. The amendment of the road traffic act in spring 2017 was already a step in the right direction, but there is still a long way to go before we see the breakthrough of fully automated vehicles on our public roads."

Added to that, China's current ban on testing automated vehicles on public roads may be about to come to an end, as work has already started on a law to define the corresponding regulatory framework and necessary requirements. "If China eases the restrictions, the race to lead the world in automated driving could get very competitive very fast," comments Wolfgang Bernhart. For him, the upshot is clear: "Despite the lightning speed of technology developments in automated vehicles, there is still everything to play for right now. But it'll be crucial for all stakeholders to put themselves on the right road – private companies and lawmakers alike."