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Powertrain 2020; Li-Ion batteries – the next bubble ahead?

2010

  • The share of electrified powertrains will increase in all major Automotive markets - driven by significant battery cost reductions in the next 10 years
  • PHEV and EV in main regions account for not more than 1,2 mio vehicles in 2015 in an aggressive scenario – LiIon battery demand for HEV/PHEV and EV account for 0,82 mio "EV equivalents". Demand for LiIon batteries might further increase significantly until 2020, but 3 mio unit "EV equivalent" will not be reached before 2018
  • Announced investments will result in significant overcapacity in the period between 2014 and 2017 (200% of 2016 demand already in 2015), especially in the US and Japan
  • In addition, high levels of R&D and CAPEX will be required to drive down costs fast: EUR 50..100 m for new cell chemistry, EUR 350 m for 100k unit plant
  • Therefore only six to eight global battery manufacturer will survive in the next five to seven years – critical size approx. EUR 600m revenues in 2015
  • Western governments need to act in order to avoid loosing future technologies to Asia, battery suppliers need a well defined strategy to gain market shares fast to survive, investors should be aware of massive investment risks

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