Economic scenario 2012
THOUGHTS - March 2012
We did it: 3% growth in 2011. Once again, the German economy came out on top. But while the prophets of doom are back at the start of 2012, we remain confidently optimistic. Here is our 3x3* scenario.
In 2009, we predicted that the economy would experience a V-curve, with a fast recovery following the big drop in 2008/2009. And that's exactly what happened. We then forecast growth of at least 3% in 2010 and 2011. We were right again.
Luck naturally played a part in the high accuracy of our forecasts. But right from the outset, we firmly believed in the inner strength of the real economy. We didn't allow ourselves to be distracted by the turbulence on the financial markets. We looked at the long-term, fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the economy and made a conscious decision not to go with the flow. We preferred to trust our own methodology and base our forecasts on what it was telling us. Now, we once again present our forecasts – this time for 2012 and 2013.