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Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric

2009

There can be no doubt that the current economic crisis will have a lasting impact on the automotive industry, possibly reshaping its landscape entirely. But the jury is still out on what the effect of current turmoil will be on one of the most important developments in the industry: powertrain electrification

Of course, automotive manufacturers have been aware of the need for powertrain electrification for quite some time. But their strategy in the past has been to introduce the new technology little by little, supporting it with stable financial returns from their regular business. The current crisis means that this financial basis has been pulled from under their feet. On top of this, the governments of OECD countries are putting increasing pressure on OEMs to act as pioneers in the development of carbon-free road transportation. Technology has also made significant advances recently. All in all, the time seems ripe for the automotive industry to rethink its previous slowly-slowly approach.

Our aim in the study is to shed some light on a number of pressing issues. First of all, how will regulatory standards on vehicle emissions develop in the foreseeable future? Second, what are the longer-term technological options available to OEMs for meeting emissions requirements? Third, what is the market potential for pure EVs and PHEVs in key automotive markets? And finally, what impact will this have on the current automotive value chain – what new players will emerge, how will business models change, and what will OEMs' core activities and competences be in the future? The potential impact of these developments on OEMs and suppliers cannot be overstated. How they decide to prepare for these challenges today will determine their success in the future. Once again, as was the case two years ago, the automotive industry finds itself at a crossroads. But this time the stakes are even higher.

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