The Roland Berger crisis scenarios
Roland Berger has developed three scenarios to help clients cope with the worst world economic slump since the Great Depression.
This scenario claims that while key indicators like oil price, global exports and business climate indices are pointing to recovery and stock markets are looking up, there is no reason to let down your guard. Not all late indicators have bottomed out, many causes of the crisis have not yet been removed, and protectionism also has not been banished yet.
Our three scenarios – the V, U and L curves – suggest how the crisis could further unfold. At this moment, the V scenario is the most likely on a global scale. Even at best, however, it will still be four quarters until pre-crisis growth levels will be reached again.
How things will play out exactly will depend on nine parameters – the banking sector, bailout programs, protectionism, monetary policy, unemployment, psychological factors, the oil price, structural strengths and the progress of economic engines like the U.S., China, and Russia.
The new scenario describes the characteristics of each of the nine parameters for the V, U and L curves, respectively. The document also points to important differences in regional development by presenting individual scenario calculations for the U.S., China, Germany and Russia up to 2012. The authors estimate the likelihood of which curve will come true for each country.