Three times three - scenario update
think: act CONTENT
In our scenarios for the past economic crisis, Roland Berger forecast a V-shaped recession early on, in other words a quick recovery in the world economy in 2010 (see think:act Content Scenario Update 2/2010). And that is exactly what happened. At the time, our experts were much more optimistic than many other pundits.
Three times three
The authors of the latest think:act CONTENT scenario update keep up this positive attitude. They propose an optimistic 3x3% scenario, countering the forecasters' 3-2-1 prediction. Following the actual growth of 3.6% in 2010, they expect at least 3% for 2011 and 2012 too. Quote: "We do not see why the German economy's upturn should slow down so much, as in the 3-2-1 forecast. … We believe in a sustainable, dynamic recovery."
Lessons of the past
Germany has proven many times that a 3x3 scenario is feasible. The country achieved this feat in 2000, 2006 and 2010. And the restructuring of the German economy in the years up to 2005, accompanied by wage restraint and major structural reforms, really boosted Germany's long-term competitiveness. The authors of the scenario update also point to the German business model which – with its strong focus on key and particularly value-adding, system-head functions – is now often viewed as a role model for other countries.
The latest think:act CONTENT shows that things look good for 2011 and 2012. The authors analyze the factors that can guarantee sustainable growth in Germany: our most important export markets on the one hand, and the domestic market, on the other. At the same time, they explore which factors could reverse the scenario. Finally, they highlight actions the government could take to create ideal conditions for strong growth, even after 2011.
According to our Roland Berger experts, there are many reasons to believe in the German 3x3 scenario – provided the country approaches the remainder of 2011 with optimism and self-confidence. And they conclude by quoting an American saying: Future is "the time when you regret that you didn't do what you could have done."