Oil Price Forecast for 2012 - What best performing forecasters think

2012

In this study, we examined if the 2011 oil price developments changed the top 3 performing forecasters and looked at their forecasts for 2012.

There are the key questions of our study:

• How have the main crude oil exporting countries and marketing parties performed since January 2011?
• Have the 2011 developments changed the top 3 of forecasters if we look at the entire period from January 1999 to December 2011?
• What are the most recent oil price forecasts in the 2012 national budgets of the top 3 forecasting countries?

In 2011, the major oil exporting countries again accurately forecasted the oil price: the top 3 of forecasting countries generally stayed within a 10% margin of error with respect to the actual oil price of USD 95 per barrel WTI. They did so in a tumultuous year, which saw a 20% increase in price.

For 2012, they expect another 15% rise of the oil price, to an average of USD 111 per barrel WTI, although the large range of USD 97-120 indicates considerable uncertainty. Market parties have consistently underestimated the oil price over the period investigated (1999-2011).