German economy forecast 2013
Germany's manufacturing skills, the uptick in the global economy, a stabilized Europe and a healthy domestic market – these factors will have a positive impact on growth in Germany through 2013. The experts at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants expect to see the German economy grow by up to 1.2% this year. This analysis sets the international strategy consultancy apart from the negative forecasts of other institutions. However, various risk factors cast a shadow over growth prospects. The key problems here are high unemployment in Southern Europe, uncertain developments in France, economic risks facing the US and China and Germany's progress in shifting to renewable energy. Yet the German economy has the medium-term potential to grow at up to 2%. These are the core findings of "Economic Scenario 2013", the latest such forecast to appear in the "THOUGHTS" series published by the Roland Berger School of Strategy and Economics (RBSE).
"The starting point for the German economy is not bad. Christmas business was good, our companies are generally in good shape, exports are going well despite the economic dip, and the labor market is robust," explains Prof. Dr. Burkhard Schwenker, Chairman of the Supervisory Board at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. "Even the financial markets have stabilized. Risks have been reduced, equity positions improved and lending is working again." Yet most forecasters remain cautious. The IMF, for instance, has reduced its growth forecast for Germany from 1.5 to 0.9%, the OECD to 0.6% and Consensus to 0.7%. "Unlike them, we're looking at the strengths of the German economy – strengths that will really count as the economic momentum picks up. We predict growth at 1.2% for 2013," says Schwenker.