By David Born and Christian Krys

Trend 6 of our Trend Compendium 2050 focuses on the development of health and care. Here, we look at the many global health challenges, future trends in healthcare, and the increasingly pressing issue of caregiving.

Global health challenges: Fighting disease is at the heart of the matter, but further efforts are needed

The health landscape is facing multifaceted challenges that require comprehensive strategies. Cardiovascular diseases and cancer remain predominant health concerns, projected to persist through 2050. Contributing significantly to global mortality rates, these diseases are often preventable, highlighting the critical need for lifestyle interventions and robust public health policies. Additionally, chronic respiratory diseases are on the rise, driven by factors such as air pollution and smoking.

The aging global population poses a number of other challenges for the healthcare system, in particular the growing prevalence of dementia and diabetes. A particularly sharp increase in diabetes cases is expected in Africa and the Middle East, which, in addition to aging, is mainly due to growing prosperity and the resulting changes in eating and lifestyle habits.

The incidence of communicable diseases is declining, but still poses a significant risk. Infections of the lower respiratory tract in particular are the most common cause of communicable diseases-related deaths in various regions. Eradicating major infectious diseases, such as malaria, is a goal, but it is difficult to achieve. At the same time, antimicrobial resistance has become a global problem that requires concerted action to combat its spread and mitigate its consequences.

Climate change can also pose health risks, for example, by increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Tackling the health challenges posed by climate change requires significant investment. Eventually, one of the most important health policy goals is to ensure that everyone has access to high-quality, affordable health care. Currently, there are glaring disparities, particularly between the poorest and richest countries.

The future of healthcare: Innovation drives new approaches in prevention, diagnostics and treatment

Tackling the multifaceted health challenges requires a holistic approach that integrates prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Public health systems, supported by international institutions such as the WHO, are pivotal in reducing the prevalence and economic burden of diseases. Concurrently, companies, particularly within the pharmaceutical industry, play a key role in providing disease prevention products and services. Medical innovations, such as mRNA vaccines, significantly expand the possibilities for disease prevention.

Medical diagnosis is also driven by technological progress. The Internet of Medical Things, coupled with AI, 5G, and blockchain solutions, has greatly improved diagnostic efficiency and personalization. Telemedicine services, whose use has been amplified by the pandemic, have facilitated access to healthcare and the creation of integrated eHealth ecosystems. Point-of-care tests enable faster diagnostics and thus prompt therapy.

In the field of therapy, precision medicine, especially CRISPR technology, offers the possibility of correcting genetic disorders. Cell and gene therapies are groundbreaking approaches that restore biological functions and offer hope for treating previously incurable diseases. Self-controlling surgical robots promise greater precision and effectiveness in medical procedures. AI will accelerate drug development. Innovative biomaterials such as self-healing polymers and bioinks are ushering in a new era of treatment methods.

Caregiving: The aging of society increases the need for care

As the proportion of older people increases globally, pressure on care systems is increasing as older people face the highest risk of requiring care services. The aging of society is particularly pronounced in industrialized countries. Notably, even in these countries, on average, less than half of the older population is in good or very good health, underscoring the need for robust support systems in later years.

Informal care, provided by family members or loved ones, remains the cornerstone of care for the elderly. In industrialized countries, around 60% of people in need of care depend solely on informal support. The proportion of informal caregivers in the total population varies, ranging from around 4% to over 20%, depending on the country. Care is increasingly taking place at home rather than in institutions, which can help improve the quality of life of those in need of care and ensure the sustainability of care systems.

The care sector has a high proportion of part-time employment, low wages and limited opportunities for advancement, making it difficult to recruit and retain workers. The growing demand for nurses exacerbates this situation. Another challenge is that the cost of formal long-term care, particularly for people with severe impairments, is often higher than the income of those in need of care.

How companies can take advantage of megatrends

Companies can do a lot to maintain and improve their health of their employees. This benefits both the employees and the companies through higher productivity, lower absenteeism, and a happier workforce. Examples of these measures include preventive health programs, ergonomic office facilities, flexible work arrangements, and financial support for privately organized health services.

Innovations are particularly important for companies in the healthcare sector, especially those involving artificial intelligence. Healthcare companies should invest in AI infrastructure and in the ability of their workforce to effectively use AI tools.

Finally, in view of the growing need for care, companies must adapt by enabling employees to care for relatives through flexible work models and by offering inclusive programs that allow employees to use care services.