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2016 oil price forecast: who predicts best?


Oil producing countries' price forecasts are becoming increasingly inaccurate. For 2015, their starting point was an average oil price per barrel of USD 95, while the actual average was USD 49. Notably, forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), are becoming more accurate. The three major institutions have seen the smallest margins of error since 2010. This is one of the findings reached by consulting firm Roland Berger in its study, 2016 oil price forecast: who predicts best? The study has analyzed the price forecasts from the largest oil producing countries and institutions since 2007.


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