By Siongkoon Lim and Martin Weissbart

Recent industry discussions and analyses have paid considerable attention to the development of AI data centers and the current limitations facing the power grid. While important, our 2026 outlook takes a broader view to provide a comprehensive understanding of how the infrastructure investment landscape will likely take shape. Two cross-sector trends in particular, the resurgence of large-cap transactions and evolving expectations around value creation, are expected to influence infrastructure fund investments and M&A activity in the coming year.

Discussions with market participants, projects and internal analysis led us to examine two major trends as we look ahead to 2026 and beyond: revived activity around large-cap transactions and a continued increase in emphasis on value creation . Notably, both developments are influencing the infrastructure investment landscape across multiple sectors.

Appetite for big deals and value add

After several years of subdued activity in large-scale transactions, there is renewed optimism in large-cap dealmaking. This turn is driven by several factors, including increased clarity around the trajectory of interest rates, improved financing availability, a backlog of quality assets, and a resurgence in fundraising. As a result, market participants are once again showing stronger sentiment toward large-cap deals .

For years, our annual infrastructure investment outlooks have highlighted a growing emphasis on value creation. Survey respondents have consistently forecast its growing importance, year after year. This trend continues into 2026, but the nature of value creation is evolving. Value creation is no longer seen as a discretionary element – it is now becoming a fundamental expectation for both large-cap and mid-cap infrastructure funds.

Robust mid-cap activity

This renewed enthusiasm for large-cap transactions is not expected to diminish mid-market activity, where deal flow is projected to remain robust. Many mid-cap assets offer attractive opportunities for value creation, especially through operational enhancements, platform development, and efforts to derisk cash flows.

Hybrid hotspots

Hybrid infrastructure assets, which don’t fit traditional categories, attract core-plus and value-add funds due to their mission-critical services, recurring demand, and customer stickiness. Hotspots include specialized equipment rental, commercial vehicle leasing, industrial services and business services.

Across these hotspots, infrastructure funds are showing greater flexibility around traditional requirements. They are now willing to relax certain constraints if the asset's overall risk-return profile aligns with their objectives.

What matters most is that the business demonstrates long-term, durable demand. Even if individual contracts are short, the overall demand profile must be visible and enduring. Assets should ideally be oriented toward serving traditional infrastructure sectors and benefiting from trends such as decarbonization, digitalization, aging populations, regulatory tightening and increased supply chain resilience.

2026 outlook

This year, we are likely to see a further convergence of private equity and infrastructure funds, especially around hybrid assets. As the hybrid infrastructure sector matures and the investment thesis evolves, more funds and teams will explicitly straddle both. This evolution will be a key feature of the infrastructure investment universe in the coming years.

More detailed insights, including sector-specific deep dives and focused analyses, will be published throughout the year. Further updates will follow, providing a comprehensive exploration of key trends and investment opportunities in the infrastructure sector.

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