By Christian Krys and David Born

Trend 1 of our Trend Compendium addresses the foundational elements that underpin all other megatrends: Population and Society. In this edition, we explore how the most relevant aspects of population dynamics, migration, education and labor, as well as values and culture will evolve globally and in the most important regions toward 2050.

Population: The world population continues to grow and age, and is becoming more urban – with varying dynamics across regions

Although declining birth rates will gradually slow global population growth toward 2050, the world's population will continue to rise. By 2050, Earth will be home to 9.6 billion people – an increase of approximately 1.4 billion compared to 2025. This growth will be concentrated primarily in less developed regions. Sub-Saharan Africa's population is set to nearly double. By contrast, more developed regions are projected to experience a slight decline.

The divergence between growing and shrinking populations will result in approximately 87% of the world's population residing in less developed regions by 2050.

Simultaneously, global aging is accelerating: the world's median age will rise from 30.9 years in 2025 to 36.1 years in 2050, driven by declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, which will reach 77.0 years globally. By 2050, nearly 1.6 billion people will be over the age of 65 – up from only around 850 million today. Yet on average, developing countries will remain notably younger – with a median age of under 35 – than developed nations, where the median age will be 45 by 2050.

The long-standing trend of urbanization will continue unabated. Today, 58% of the global population lives in urban areas – a figure set to rise to 67% by 2050. The most significant increases are expected in Africa and Asia. Megacities are continuing to expand: by mid-century, Dhaka is expected to surpass Jakarta as the world's largest urban agglomeration, and nine of the ten biggest cities will be located in Asia. By 2035, the world is projected to have 40 megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants.

Migration: Driven by choice or necessity, people move across as well as within borders

In 2024, more than 304 million people were living outside their country of origin. Migration remains multifaceted: a significant share of migrants seek employment and educational opportunities abroad, with the United States, Germany, and other high-income nations serving as primary destinations. At the same time, a substantial number of people are forced to flee conflict, persecution, or disaster. By the end of 2025, approximately 118 million people were forcibly displaced globally – 76% of them originating from just ten countries, including Venezuela, Ukraine, and Syria.

Internally displaced people (IDPs) represent the largest group, with 82 million individuals displaced within their own countries in 2025. Looking ahead, climate change is expected to become an increasingly powerful driver of displacement: the World Bank projects that up to 216 million climate migrants will move within six regions by 2050 – a figure that could be reduced by 60-80% through concerted global climate action.

International labor migration continues to provide measurable economic benefits. Remittances to low- and middle-income countries reached a record high of USD 683 billion in 2024, making them a vital sources of external financing for many developing economies. Favorable demographic profiles and high labor participation rates make migrants a vital resource for destination countries with aging workforces and talent shortages.

Education & Labor: More and more people are getting access to good education

Educational attainment among adults has risen steadily and will continue to do so. By 2050, 7.7 billion adults will have completed some form of formal education. The proportion of the adult population holding a post-secondary degree is projected to reach approximately one in four, while the share of adults without any formal education will shrink to around 7%. Importantly, both the quantity and quality of education are closely linked to national prosperity and individual earning potential – a compelling argument for sustained investment in education systems worldwide.

China and India will continue to lead the world in terms of the absolute size of their highly educated younger workforces for decades to come. At the same time, AI is rapidly reshaping education and the labor market. Research confirms that generative AI can meaningfully boost productivity in areas such as writing, software development, and client support. Crucially, however, AI does not affect all jobs equally: roles involving predominantly repetitive cognitive tasks face the prospect of automation, while those requiring analytical, creative, or interpersonal skills are more likely to be augmented.

Values & Culture: Human freedom shows a mixed global picture with an uncertain path ahead

Values and culture shape the foundations of every society. A key lens through which to assess global progress is human freedom – understood as the absence of coercive constraint and measured across both personal and economic dimensions. The Human Freedom Index, which tracks 165 jurisdictions representing 98% of the world's population, paints a nuanced picture: since 2000, the global average has been on a gradual downward trajectory, standing at 6.17 in 2023. Of the 165 jurisdictions analyzed, 91 saw a decrease in their freedom score, while 67 improved. The sharpest decline was recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic, when many countries restricted civil liberties. The index ranges widely: Switzerland leads with a score of 9.15, while Syria ranks lowest at 3.27. Notably, only 14% of the global population lives in the top quartile of free countries, while 39% lives in the bottom quartile.

Looking toward 2050, the trajectory of global values will be shaped by several pivotal forces: the rise of multipolar geopolitics, the rapid evolution of digital technologies, the growing demands of emerging middle classes, and the necessary response to shared global challenges such as climate change. Whether these forces converge toward greater openness and individual rights – or toward increased surveillance, restriction, and fragmentation – will define the values landscape of future generations.

How companies can take advantage of megatrends

Companies face a confluence of demographic and societal shifts that demand strategic responses across multiple dimensions.

Addressing a shrinking talent pool: In many advanced economies, aging populations are reducing the size of the available workforce. Firms should conduct systematic needs analyses to identify precisely which roles require upskilling versus redeployment, where new hiring is needed, and which tasks offer the highest potential for automation. Continuous training programs that reflect the increasingly shortening half-life of knowledge and skills are essential, as is broadening hiring practices to embrace a more inclusive talent pool.

Adapting to shifting customer profiles and market dynamics: Ongoing demographic change and urbanization are reshaping consumer markets. Entering markets with robust population growth and increasing purchasing power can be a compelling growth strategy. Equally, global aging means that customer bases will skew older – companies need to adapt their products and services accordingly. Urbanization, meanwhile, continues to drive demand for smart and sustainable infrastructure solutions.

Leveraging migration and building diverse organizations: Migration pressure toward Global North countries will intensify, creating increasingly diverse workforces and customer bases. Companies should proactively develop comprehensive strategies for recruiting and retaining diverse talent, establish employee resource and affinity networks, facilitate international exchanges among high-potential employees, and provide multilingual communication to meet the needs of a culturally diverse workforce. Marketing and product strategies should be adjusted to reflect evolving demographics.

Harnessing the potential of AI: The transformative impact of AI on labor productivity is an opportunity companies cannot afford to miss. Firms should formulate a clear AI integration strategy that aligns with core business objectives, establish dedicated AI talent acquisition and development programs, and pursue incremental automation pathways that maximize the potential of human-machine collaboration.

Embedding DEI as a business imperative: Amid shifting stakeholder expectations, diversity, equity, and inclusion must be treated as a core element of business strategy – not an optional add-on. Organizations should enhance transparency through regular DEI reporting, broaden talent assessment to move beyond familiar profiles, and actively engage employees, investors, and customers on their DEI commitments. Companies with strong DEI practices are not only better positioned to attract and retain top talent in an increasingly competitive global environment, but are also more innovative and overall more successful than their competitors.