German automotive industry set to shrink: New Roland Berger study forecasts at least 200,000 fewer jobs by 2030

• Roland Berger study expects employment in the German automotive industry to decline from around 692,000 to fewer than 500,000 jobs.
• German vehicle plants are operating at only around 60% capacity utilization, while profitable operations require at least 75-80%.
• Germany has, in effect, at least five vehicle plants too many.

Munich, October 7, 2026

The German automotive industry is facing a profound structural transformation. To remain internationally competitive, the industry must fundamentally reinvent itself, according to the new study Germany's automotive reset: From model of global success to painful consolidation by Roland Berger. Even if the right measures are taken now, at least 200,000 jobs are expected to disappear in Germany by 2030. Employment at automotive manufacturers and suppliers is projected to decline from approximately 692,000 in 2025 to around 490,000. Around 90,000 direct jobs, 95,000 positions in indirect functions, and 15,000 management roles would be affected. If the necessary decisions are not implemented quickly, even greater job losses are likely.

"A plant needs a capacity utilization rate of 75 to 80 percent in order to operate profitably. Many German sites are far from that level. We have production capacity for more than six million vehicles, yet we build only a little over four million. In other words, Germany effectively has at least five vehicle plants too many. There is therefore no way around capacity adjustments," says Felix Mogge, Partner at Roland Berger.

Vehicle production in Germany has declined significantly in recent years. While 5.9 million vehicles were manufactured in German plants in 2015, the figure had fallen to around 4.2 million by 2025. At the same time, installed production capacity still stands at approximately 6.4 million vehicles per year. According to the study, current production volumes represent the new normal, and a return to previous production levels is not expected.

Overcapacity meets cost disadvantage

In addition to excess capacity in German plants, Germany as a manufacturing location is struggling with structural cost disadvantages. When it comes to vehicle production costs, including batteries and electric drivetrains, material costs and direct manufacturing labor, Chinese manufacturers enjoy an overall cost advantage of around 30 percent.

"While German manufacturers have caught up technologically with global leaders, a price gap of around 30 percent can no longer be offset by brand strength alone," says Felix Mogge.

Roland Berger sees both industry and policymakers as equally responsible for ensuring that job losses do not exceed the expected 200,000 positions.

"The German automotive industry must develop and manufacture vehicles much faster. At the same time, policymakers must actively support the transformation of the sector. Examples include innovation clusters that accelerate technological development and large-scale reskilling initiatives for employees," emphasizes Sebastian Gundermann, Partner at Roland Berger.

While Chinese manufacturers can bring new vehicles to market in as little as 24 months, German manufacturers typically require 48 months or more. According to the study, a realistic target for the German industry would be development cycles of 30 to 36 months. Continued investment in future technologies remains essential despite current cost pressures. The study also recommends closer cooperation between manufacturers and suppliers in software development, as software's share of development costs is expected to more than double by 2030.

At the same time, policymakers should accelerate approval processes for planned site transformations and make collaboration among different market participants easier. The government should also actively support the transformation through qualification and reskilling programs for more than 50,000 employees in software, battery technology, robotics, and artificial intelligence.

About the study
The study Germany's automotive reset: From model of global success to painful consolidation by Roland Berger analyzes the structural challenges facing the industry in both the global and German markets. It is based on assessments of market, company and industry data, as well as proprietary calculations and analyses conducted by Roland Berger.

About Roland Berger
Roland Berger is the only leading global strategy consultancy of European origin. The firm combines deep industry expertise with broad experience across core management functions and transformation programs. Founded in 1967 and headquartered in Munich, Roland Berger supports companies worldwide in shaping and executing complex transformations – from strategic repositioning and performance improvement to the development and application of data-driven, AI-enabled solutions. Roland Berger is working towards achieving its company-wide net-zero emission reduction targets by 2040, validated by the Science Based Targets initiative. The firm’s progress is documented in its annual ESG report. In 2025, Roland Berger generated revenues of over EUR 1 billion.