The machine customer

By Viktoria Danzer, Christian Hartmann, Alessandro Grigolon and Andrei Lorman

Agentic commerce is moving rapidly from concept to commercial reality. Adoption is expected to be strongest in business-to-business (B2B) activity, with agent-mediated buying forecast to become a significant share of B2B commerce by 2028. We estimate that total European agent-mediated volume could reach EUR 1.5–2.7 trillion by 2030, with more than 90 percent of that volume stemming from B2B. In this article, we present our view of market development and the potential of agentic commerce in Europe, along with the opportunities this creates for banks agentic commerce in Europe, along with the opportunities this creates for banks and how to capitalize on them, but also the risks of being a late mover. Finally, we explain our approach to how banks can get started with agentic commerce.

Agentic commerce moves into the mainstream

Agentic commerce is moving rapidly from concept to commercial reality. We estimate that total European B2B and B2C agent-mediated volume could reach EUR 1.5-2.7 trillion by 2030, with around 95 percent stemming from B2B. Globally, 60-90 percent of B2B buying is expected to be agent-mediated by 2028. B2C adoption will develop at a more measured pace, reaching an estimated 10-20% of European e-commerce by 2030.

But the shift is not simply about scale. Agentic commerce will develop through different stages, moving from AI-assisted discovery toward mandate-based delegation and ultimately autonomous commerce. Live agentic payments are already showing how quickly the technology is moving from experimentation into real-world transactions.

The opportunity differs sharply by segment

For banks, that shift translates into very different opportunities in B2B and B2C. B2B represents by far the larger near-term opportunity, with an estimated revenue pool of EUR 2.0-3.7 billion a year by 2030, spanning invoice and supply-chain financing, trade-finance automation, machine-to-machine (M2M) payments and verified operational data. In B2C, the corresponding revenue pool could reach EUR 0.7-1.7 billion, led by embedded lending and subscription-management tools.

The opportunity comes with a strategic risk, however. Payment networks and technology platforms are already building infrastructure and setting standards, while banks are beginning to move as well. Institutions that act too slowly risk losing transaction revenue and customer access – and being pushed toward a purely back-end infrastructure role.

Five priorities for banks

That makes timing critical: the next 12-18 months will be crucial as standards and liability rules take shape. Banks are not starting from zero, but they need to move now. We see five priorities:

1. Ensure agentic readiness by making existing products fit for agent-initiated transactions
2. Rebuild the customer experience for real-time control around mandates, exceptions and visibility
3. Modernize the technology stack and integrate early with emerging standards and agent platforms
4. Negotiate liability rules and checkout placement so bank products are not merely connected but actually chosen
5. Build the controls and evidence trail regulators will require as more transactions move outside the bank’s own interface

Download the full article to explore how agentic commerce is likely to develop in Europe and what banks need to do now to capture the opportunity and secure their role in the emerging market.

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