Automotive Disruption Radar 14: China leads the way as the industry regroups around it

By Wolfgang Bernhart, Stefan Riederle and Sebastian Braun

Roland Berger’s Automotive Disruption Radar (ADR) is back! After a brief pause for a reset and update, the auto industry’s go-to assessment of market changes has returned bigger and better than before. As in the past, the 14th edition provides analysis of the top performers, biggest improvers and strugglers among the 22 featured countries, assessments of key market indicators from electrification to regulation, and a feature on a major current theme – this time, regional decoupling in the industry. All ADRs draw heavily on a comprehensive survey of around 1,000 people in each country to monitor 26 key industry indicators.

Stand-out findings in ADR14 include China’s return to the top of the rankings and overall dominance, stagnating consumer enthusiasm but surging investment in autonomous vehicles, slowing but stable interest in electric vehicles, and a shift away from shared mobility back towards private car ownership. In addition, the industry is becoming increasingly polarized, with several decoupled regional ecosystems emerging.

China is outperforming other regions and is now the dominant force in the world’s automotive industry, the latest edition of the ADR shows. The country regained pole position in the overall rankings from Singapore, which was pushed out of the top three for the first time since 2021. Dominance in key indicators (especially around technology, infrastructure and customer interest) helped it to outpace stagnating Western counterparts.

China performed particularly well in electrification indicators, with consumer enthusiasm remaining consistently high and battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales now making up 25% of total vehicle sales, compared to 22% in ADR13. Meanwhile, core automotive markets such as Germany, Japan and the United States (US) are experiencing a decline in preference for EVs.

In addition, Chinese OEMs have doubled down on their domestic market while continuing to make inroads into the European market, putting pressure on European OEMs. European players also remain dependent on China for much of their EV and autonomous driving technology.

Rankings overview

South Korea and the Netherlands completed the top three in the rankings. The former performed well in technology-focused indicators, automotive industry activity and consumer openness to evolving automotive trends. These were supported by the country’s significant role as a leading global vehicle exporter. The Netherlands advanced significantly, climbing five positions from ADR13. This achievement was made possible by widespread adoption of digitalized mobility planning, reduced road transport emissions facilitated by a high penetration of low-emission zones and ambitious European Union (EU) vehicle CO₂ emission standards.

Norway and Sweden also jumped up the rankings, finishing in joint fourth place alongside Singapore. Both were driven by progress in digital mobility planning, enhanced charging infrastructure and a continued surge in potential EV buyers. Germany followed close behind, maintaining its position within the leading group thanks to efficient and rapid type approval processes, strong patent activity and a globally renowned, export-oriented OEM sector. France and Italy were among the biggest improvers, displaying notable progress in automated driving and technology-related indicators. Overall, the average score increased from 44% in ADR13 (2023) to 55% in ADR14 (2024).

At the other end of the table, the US was among the biggest fallers. Indicators reveal a downward trend in consumer interest, as well as the adoption of new mobility concepts, shared mobility services and multimodal travel in the country. This decline may be linked to a shift in policy direction under the new US administration, which is adopting a more conservative stance on automotive disruption. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Saudi Arabia also performed poorly, largely due to their rising transport emissions.

It should be noted that some indicators - particularly around EVs and regulation – were updated in ADR14 to reflect the rapidly evolving nature of the industry. Their scaling was adjusted to ensure fair comparisons with previous editions.

Trends

Away from the country rankings, continued zealous backing of AI technologies and rising skepticism of mobility and digital automotive services were the two big themes in ADR14. Indicators reflecting venture capital investment in AI and patent activities related to autonomous technology consistently scored at top levels across the majority of surveyed countries and showed significant improvement over ADR13. Venture capital investment in AI soared by 263% to more than USD 25 billion between 2022 and 2024, for example.

However, consumers themselves are less enthusiastic about new mobility technologies. Indicators showing consumer preferences for digital sales channels declined globally and shared mobility services remain at a low level. While new modes of mobility – such as micromobility, car sharing and air mobility – are expected to gain traction in urban centers, the private car continues to play a central role in individual mobility.

Decoupling of the automotive industry

The feature section of the ADR14 report looks in depth at the major structural changes occurring within the industry. As China begins to dominate, four distinct regional ecosystems are developing around it, with Europe taking a back seat and the US increasingly isolated. But this decoupling is not simply a case of each region acting independently – there is both divergence and convergence.

The analysis outlines the reasons and drivers behind the decoupling, highlights examples of convergence and divergence, such as the convergence on vehicle-to-everything communication standards and divergence on cybersecurity standards, and assesses the strategic implications for OEMs and suppliers. It also provides a series of recommendations to help both groups navigate the new Chinese-dominated automotive landscape.

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