Clean Hydrogen Radar

By Uwe Weichenhain, Yvonne Ruf, Matthias Nagl, Markus Kaufmann and Christopher Schmitt

This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 22.03.2023.

Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.

Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean hydrogen. Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.

The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.

What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?

Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the hydrogen economy. The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:

• Hydrogen strategies and national targets
  Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
• Regulatory developments
  Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
• Upstream market
  Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
• Midstream market
  Developments in the transportation and storage of hydrogen
• Downstream market
  News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)

In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!

Highlights from the Q1 2023 update

Q1 2023 has brought numerous dynamic developments, with some of the most far-reaching decisions since the launch of the Clean Hydrogen Radar. Highlights include:

• The EU establishes regulations to define renewable hydrogen in long-awaited Delegated Acts.
• Neom becomes the first GW-scale green hydrogen project to acquire funding, with USD 8.5 billion lined up.
• Oman enters into six agreements with foreign developers to construct 15 GW of electrolyzer capacity.
• With several other large electrolyzer projects also revealed, green hydrogen production capacity is set to reach 460 GW by 2030 based on currently announced projects. However, Roland Berger’s assessment, which considers project failure rates, expects approximately 120 GW capacity by 2030.

While this spurs plenty of optimism, there are still hurdles to overcome, most notably the criteria established with the first Delegated Act and to be met by hydrogen project developers to regard hydrogen as "green". Further, the current economic environment with rising interest rates and higher financing costs may lead to delays in project implementation or even cancellations. Hence, despite positive moves from both governments and developers, then, there remain some roadblocks for clean hydrogen in 2023 and beyond.

What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?

Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.

We look forward to hearing from you!

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