Clean Hydrogen Radar - Q3 2025

By Uwe Weichenhain, Yvonne Ruf, Matthias Nagl, Markus Kaufmann and Christopher Schmitt

This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We have updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 16.10.2025.

Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.

Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean hydrogen. Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.

The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.

What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?

Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the hydrogen economy. The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:

• Hydrogen strategies and national targets
  Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
• Regulatory developments
  Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
• Upstream market
  Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
• Midstream market
  Developments in the transportation and storage of hydrogen
• Downstream market
  News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)

In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!

Highlights from the Q3 2025 update

Q3 2025 was again a dynamic quarter across the entire clean hydrogen sector, including further announcements of large-scale hydrogen projects in Asia and new international hydrogen policy and funding developments. However, despite these positive signs, negative signals for the market remained. Key developments during Q3 include:

• Seven projects, representing 1.88 GW of electrolyzer capacity, proved unfeasible, despite winning grants in the European Hydrogen Bank’s second auction in May 2023. This is a large proportion of the total 2.34 GW awarded. Developers withdrew before signing agreements, citing policy and infrastructure delays, uncertainty, or failing to provide the required 8% completion guarantee within two months. Their funding will be redirected to projects on the reserve list.
• In September, Germany’s Ministry for Economic Affairs announces reforms to accelerate hydrogen deployment, proposing equal treatment of low-carbon and green hydrogen, and replacing the EU’s restrictive RFNBO rules with more flexible criteria to simplify support schemes.
• China approves several gigawatt-scale hydrogen projects, including green hydrogen-to-ammonia and methanol plants, many of which have already entered construction.
• China Huadian Corporation tenders a 195 km pipeline to connect the north and the south of Inner Mongolia, transporting 100,000 tons of H2 yearly. Construction time is 90 days.
• In September, Salzgitter announces the postponement of investments in green H2-based steel by three years due to high energy costs, slow ramp-up of hydrogen supply, and low demand.
• In August, Rockcheck Group signs a contract with the Inner Mongolia government to deliver 1,000 H2-powered heavy-duty trucks by 2026. Rockcheck plans to scale up to 10,000 H2-powered trucks in the next five years.

Total announced green hydrogen production capacity, based on the latest project developments, may reach 560 GW by 2030. However, per Roland Berger’s assessment, which uses a probabilistic model considering project failure rates, expected cancellations and postponements, expects around 45-50 GW of installed electrolyzer capacity by 2030.

What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?

Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.

We look forward to hearing from you!

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