Clean Hydrogen Radar

By Uwe Weichenhain, Yvonne Ruf, Matthias Nagl, Markus Kaufmann and Christopher Schmitt

This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 28.09.2023.

Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.

Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean hydrogen. Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.

The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.

What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?

Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the hydrogen economy. The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:

• Hydrogen strategies and national targets
  Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
• Regulatory developments
  Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
• Upstream market
  Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
• Midstream market
  Developments in the transportation and storage of hydrogen
• Downstream market
  News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)

In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!

Highlights from the Q3 2023 update

In Q3 2023, we saw plenty of developments along the whole hydrogen value chain, including announcements for some of the biggest hydrogen policies and funding plans so far. Highlights include:

• The UAE unveiled a national hydrogen strategy aiming to reach 15 million tons/year of green H2, which would make it one of the world's top hydrogen producers.
• In August, Germany announced it will spend EUR 18.6 billon from its Climate and Transformation Fund on the development of green H2.
• China's largest green hydrogen project, the 260-MW Kuqa facility, began commercial operations in August – a groundbreaking achievement in the development of green hydrogen.
• At the G20 summit, leading countries announced plans to build a corridor between India and Europe via the Arabian Gulf. The corridor would include cables, rail and shipping, as well as a hydrogen pipeline.
• H2 Green Steel signed further green steel offtake agreements with automotive OEMs and suppliers, and raised USD 1.6 billion in equity financing to expand its capacity for green steel.

After several further announcements of large electrolyzer projects, the current total for announced projects is approximately 475 GW of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030. However, Roland Berger’s assessment, which considers project failure rates, expects approximately 120 GW capacity by 2030.

Recent developments in the hydrogen and derivatives economy show the huge ambitions of the public and private sectors, but it will take a few more years for businesses in all regions to be profitable without government support. The tougher economic climate, including rising interest rates and greater financing costs, is likely to cause project delays or even cancellations.

Consequently, while governments and developers have made considerable progress, we are yet to see all "green lights" for clean hydrogen beyond the third quarter of 2023.

What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?

Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.

We look forward to hearing from you!

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