Clean Hydrogen Radar - Q2 2024

By Uwe Weichenhain, Yvonne Ruf, Matthias Nagl, Markus Kaufmann and Christopher Schmitt

This page was originally published on 08.11.2022. We have updated the radar and related texts and graphics on 22.07.2024.

Climate change and serious geopolitical concerns have made the need to wean advanced economies off fossil fuels abundantly clear. In the process, both private-sector interests and public policymakers are increasingly discovering the potential of hydrogen to advance the transition to a climate-friendly economy. However, staying on top of such a fast-moving market is no easy task.

Roland Berger has advised clients for over a decade on countless projects surrounding clean hydrogen. Our expertise ranges from crafting political concepts for governments and industry associations to developing strategies for all relevant sectors of industry.

The Clean Hydrogen Radar places our in-depth understanding of this dynamic market at your disposal in a clear and concise form. Distilled into sharply focused analyses, the insights we are gaining will keep decision-makers in industry and government up to speed on the latest developments as the hydrogen economy continues to accelerate.

What is the Clean Hydrogen Radar?

Roland Berger believes it is important for market players and market makers to grasp the strategic implications and direction of the hydrogen economy. The radar therefore takes a deep dive into the latest technological and commercial developments as well as relevant regulatory trends. Drawing on our international networks of experts, we cover developments in global key markets, breaking our analysis down into different segments:

• Hydrogen strategies and national targets
  Government strategies and ambitions towards hydrogen adoption
• Regulatory developments
  Regulatory developments influencing the adoption of hydrogen and derivatives
• Upstream market
  Developments surrounding the production and supply of hydrogen and its derivatives
• Midstream market
  Developments in the transportation and storage of hydrogen
• Downstream market
  News on hydrogen demand and the many use cases along three sectors: Industry (e.g., steel, refining, chemicals), Mobility (e.g., fuel cell trucks, sustainable aviation fuels), Energy (e.g., hydrogen fueled heat and power plants)

In the quarterly radar, our experts analyze these developments, interpreting current events and bringing the bigger market picture clearly into focus. Obviously, a brief high-level summary alone cannot share the full wealth of Roland Berger’s market intelligence in this fascinating field. However, the Clean Hydrogen Radar will lay a firm foundation for strategic discussion with clients, government policymakers and the public at large – a discussion we expressly welcome!

Highlights from the Q2 2024 update

In Q2 2024, we saw plenty of developments along the hydrogen value chain, including further announcements of gigawatt-scale hydrogen projects and new international hydrogen policy and funding plans. However, despite these and other positive signs, there were again some negative signals for the market.

Overall highlights during Q2 include:

• The European Hydrogen Bank allocated a lower-than-expected budget of EUR 1.2 bn for its second green hydrogen subsidy auction this autumn.
• TotalEnergies and Air Products entered into a 15-year offtake agreement for the annual delivery of 70,000 tons of green hydrogen, starting in 2030.
• The EU approved EUR 1.4 bn in state aid for green hydrogen in road transport, shipping, and aviation, marking the fourth wave of the Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI).
• The Japanese government is set to commit USD 1 bn for further subsidies to boost supply chains for imported, already subsidized green hydrogen.
• Significant advancement was made towards the formation of the European Network of Network Operators of Hydrogen (ENNOH), as future hydrogen transmission network operators agreed on guidelines.
• Nikola secured an order for 100 fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) trucks from major fleet operator AiLO Logistics, in California, effectively doubling its sales for the year.
• US regulators excluded hydrogen co-firing from the power plant decarbonization strategy due to high costs.

Total green hydrogen production capacity, based on the latest announced projects, is approximately 560 GW by 2030. However, Roland Berger’s assessment, which considers project failure rates and postponements, expects less than 80 GW by 2030.

What does the future hold for the hydrogen economy?

Recent market developments and world events make it clear: Industry leaders and public policymakers need to keep a very close eye on how the clean hydrogen economy unfolds going forward. So stay tuned for our next update to the Clean Hydrogen Radar. But don’t just leave it at that: Reach out and engage with us in discussing what these developments mean for your strategy and your organization.

We look forward to hearing from you!

Stay current with our latest insights on sustainability and climate action topics. We will email you when new articles and studies are published.