Future-proofing cities in the age of polycrisis

By Mohamad Yamout and André Sleiman

Written in collaboration with World Governments Summit, this paper argues that in an era of polycrisis, cities must move beyond resilience and embed foresight into governance. It introduces an Urban Foresight and Adaptability Framework built on five pillars, offers global city examples, and translates lessons for GCC contexts, providing practical pathways to institutionalize scenario planning, experimentation, and decision-making.

1. Defines how polycrisis (compound, cascading, recurring shocks) concentrates risk in cities—and why traditional resilience is no longer enough.
2. Introduces a 5-pillar Urban Foresight & Adaptability Framework with measurable criteria to benchmark readiness and identify gaps.
3. Provides GCC-relevant pathways to institutionalize foresight: literacy, dedicated functions, integration into planning cycles, regulatory sandboxes, and cross-sector touchpoints.

The world has entered an age of polycrisis. The fractures in society and the economy induced by polycrises may have many contributing causes, including disease, climate events and natural disasters, and sudden technological and economic changes. The present decade has seen an unusual range of near simultaneous critical events, from the COVID-19 pandemic to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, all unfolding against the backdrop of legacy stress from the global financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis.

What is different today is that we live in a faster and more interconnected world, one of mass global travel, fragile global supply chains, instant communication, and rapid capital flows.

These are conditions that can amplify the intensity of crises and facilitate the multiplier effect of crises interacting with one another.

Polycrises are not solely an urban phenomenon; they are, by nature, regional, global, or even planetary. But cities are where their effects will be felt most intensely. They are lenses that concentrate the negative energy of crises. Wherever there are structural or cyclical vulnerabilities in the world’s ever-growing great cities, those areas of vulnerability will be the first to feel the effects of critical events. But they will not be the last, as multiple stresses combine to create a crisis greater than the sum of its parts.

Many cities already have the power to confront the threat of polycrises by taking considered, tangible steps to embed foresight into their planning and policymaking. No cities are better placed in this regard than those of the GCC, where vision-led change and a technology-first mindset have already taken root, and where capital resources are ready to deploy.

Administrators and policymakers do not need another department called ‘foresight’. They need to begin thinking ahead and move beyond traditional risk-mitigation strategies focused on resilience.

Achieving this mindset change is challenging and complex, but this is precisely what the future demands.

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