Winner takes most: The global technology race to 2040

By Isaac Chan, Felix Mogge, Stefan Riederle and Shuai Shi

Technology has always been the primary engine of economic growth. The increase from USD 2,000 to USD 20,000 in global average GDP per capita over 200 years was not driven by incremental improvement — it was driven by successive cycles of breakthrough technologies that reshaped entire industries. Another such cycle is now forming. Thirty emerging trends, from AI systems and semiconductors to humanoid robotics and energy storage, are converging on the same period of commercial relevance. Their combined market will grow from EUR 2.5 trillion today to more than EUR 20 trillion by 2040 — a tenfold increase, during a period when total industrial GDP is itself expected to roughly double. The question for companies and policymakers, is how to capture a meaningful share of it.

Thirty trends, one window

Not all emerging technologies will deliver at scale by 2040. From more than 400 candidates, Roland Berger's Advanced Technology Center identified the 30 trends most likely to reshape economic and industrial output within the relevant timeframe. Together, they are projected to grow from roughly 9% of global industrial GDP today to 37% by 2040. The landscape spans six categories — from digital infrastructure and energy systems to advanced materials, life sciences, and mobility — but within that landscape, the differences in maturity, market size, and strategic urgency are substantial. Acting on the right trends, at the right moment, is what separates the companies and economies that define the next cycle from those that follow it.

The Top 14: where the competition is being decided

Of the 30 trends, fourteen stand apart in terms of disruption potential, commercial scale, and proximity to market. Their combined global market value will reach EUR 16 trillion by 2040 — with AI systems, semiconductors, and data centers alone accounting for more than half of that total.

These fourteen split into two strategic groups. The first — "Act Now" — covers nine trends where markets are already forming at scale, capital is moving fast, and competitive positions are hardening. In these areas, delay does not mean catching up later; it means being locked out entirely. The second — "Scout & Prepare" — covers five trends with longer development horizons but significant commercial potential: quantum technologies, biomaterials, CCUS, medtech, and advanced space. These are areas where the window to build foundational capabilities remains open — but not indefinitely.

A brief look at the numbers illustrates what is at stake. Humanoid robots are expected to reach a long-term global market of USD 4 trillion by 2050. AI systems are projected to grow 24-fold between now and 2040. Quantum technologies, still in the Scout & Prepare phase, are forecast at EUR 330 billion by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate of 44%. Across all fourteen trends, double-digit annual growth rates are the norm (see FAQs ).

Europe's position: Real strengths, a widening gap

Europe's position across the Top 14 is uneven — and in several areas, genuinely strong. In microgrids and distributed energy resources, quantum technologies, CCUS, and biomaterials, Europe holds a leading global position. In medtech, European companies maintain competitive depth in high-complexity segments built on decades of precision manufacturing and regulatory expertise. These are not marginal advantages — they reflect a strong underlying foundation in research, industrial engineering, and specialized domain knowledge.

But in the three largest markets by value — AI systems, semiconductors, and data centers — Europe is trailing significantly. The US published 40 notable AI models in 2024; Europe published three. North America holds a projected 58% of global data center installed capacity by 2030, while Europe's share is expected to fall. Europe accounts for less than 3% of global semiconductor sales, holds just 9% of global wafer fabrication capacity, and both figures are trending downward.

This reflects a structural pattern that has compounded over three decades. In 1990, Europe and North America had broadly comparable GDP levels and GDP per capita. By 2025, North America had extended a 50% lead in both measures. The causes are well-understood: fragmented markets, slow collective decision-making, limited access to growth-stage capital, and internal barriers within the EU's nominally single market estimated to be equivalent to a 44-times tariff on intra-EU manufactured goods. Europe has a strong and consistent track record of invention. It has not consistently had the conditions to turn invention into commercial scale — and at global scale, that distinction determines who leads.

The window to close that gap is still open. But it is narrowing fast. Companies that backed the right technologies early — and scaled before their rivals caught up — are the ones that defined each previous economic cycle. The same dynamic is playing out now, across all fourteen trends simultaneously.

What Europe does next — which trends to prioritize, how to engage with markets where it leads, and how to remain relevant in markets where it is already behind — is the central question this study addresses. Roland Berger has identified three distinct pathways that define Europe's realistic strategic options across the Top 14, together pointing toward a EUR 3 trillion opportunity by 2040. The full study maps each technology to the approach most likely to generate returns, and sets out the specific actions required from both industry and policymakers to act on them.

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