By David Born and Christian Krys
The year 2025 will be remembered as one shaped by uncertainty. From snap elections in Germany to the “Liberation Day” tariffs that reignited global trade conflicts and the recent shutdown of the United States government, the current year has been one of exceptional volatility. Therefore, it is all the more encouraging that, despite this challenging environment, both German companies operating in the US and US companies active in Germany expect a solid business year in 2025.
These are the key findings of this year’s Transatlantic Business Barometer, jointly conducted by Roland Berger and the American Chamber of Commerce in Germany (AmCham Germany). The survey, carried out from September to October of 2025, captured the perspectives of US companies doing business in Germany and German firms operating in the US.
Although companies had previously expressed concerns about rising protectionism, this year’s results confirm that geopolitical changes are directly affecting corporate strategy. Around 69% of US companies operating in Germany and 59% of German firms active in the US report that current geopolitical shifts are negatively affecting their strategic positioning. Yet, amid these challenges, some companies are thriving: 29% of German companies in the US and 19% of US firms active in Germany say that the evolving geopolitical environment positively affects their strategic positioning.
German companies operating in the US have marked a decline in the country’s attractiveness as a business location over the past year. While 80% of respondents rated the US as an attractive business location in the previous survey, just 28% did so in 2025. For the first time since the survey began, more companies rate the US business environment negatively (44%) than positively. Perceptions have deteriorated across nearly all assessed location factors. The sharpest declines are seen in the predictability of investment conditions and economic and industrial policy, with only 5% of respondents currently rating these aspects as good or very good – compared to over 50% a year ago. However, some factors continue to be viewed favorably: market potential (60%) and energy costs (50%) remain relative strengths. Growing pessimism is also reflected in investment intentions: only one in three German companies plans to expand its US operations, while 40% expect to scale back their activities in the years ahead.
Conversely, US companies also view Germany’s business environment as increasingly unattractive. After several years of steadily declining assessments, only 27% of US firms currently view Germany positively as a business location. Respondents most frequently cited high energy and labor costs, economic and industrial policy, and the quality of digital infrastructure as key weaknesses. Nevertheless, Germany continues to be recognized for its highly skilled workforce and strong market potential, which remain important competitive advantages in an otherwise challenging environment.
After years of growing pessimism, the outlook among US companies in Germany is showing the first signs of a turnaround. Nearly two-thirds expect improving business and investment conditions in the years ahead – a signal of renewed confidence. This positive outlook is likely bolstered by the German government’s recently announced reform agenda and fiscal package. Despite the increasingly complex and unpredictable global environment, Germany has an opportunity to emerge stronger from this period of transformation. It would not be the first time the country has demonstrated resilience under pressure – provided that policy-makers, businesses, and society act in unison.
Despite ongoing uncertainty, the findings of this year’s Transatlantic Business Barometer send an important message: confidence can return when policymakers and businesses act decisively. The transatlantic partnership remains one of the world’s most critical economic corridors – but to reach its full potential, renewed commitment, structural reforms, and strategic collaboration are required. At Roland Berger and AmCham Germany, we are convinced that the time is now to turn optimism into action. Together, we can shape a more competitive, resilient, and future-ready transatlantic economy.
The Transatlantic Business Barometer brings together the results of a survey on business conditions and location factors among German and US companies operating in the respective country.
