Winning strategies for the natural gas market

By David Frans, Dieter Billen, Walter Pfeiffer and Vincent Ting

With the natural gas market evolving, gas players cannot afford to sit still. Our “Global gas game” report defines winning strategies that will allow you to secure supplies and capture value in the new market landscape.

Natural gas is here to stay. Accounting for nearly a quarter of primary energy supplies and generating around USD 1.3 trillion in annual revenues, gas remains a cornerstone of the global energy mix. And demand is only expected to rise as populations and industrial requirements grow. Yet the rules of the gas game are changing fast. Shifting trade flows, geopolitical tensions and the rise of LNG are transforming how countries and companies secure, trade and use gas. Companies and governments therefore need to adapt quickly to survive and thrive in this new landscape.

Our study, “The global gas game,” unpacks the changes and offers a roadmap for success in a more flexible, interconnected and competitive market. It assesses the primary applications of natural gas, analyzes the trends that will shape its future and defines strategies for both countries and companies to get ahead of the competition and emerge as victors in the global gas game.

Natural gas remains important for the next decades

The four key natural gas applications are power generation, industrial uses, space heating and marine fuel. A major element of the study is an analysis of how gas-fired power costs compare with other power generation sources in different regions. It finds that gas turbines perform competitively against coal-fired power, wind and solar, especially in regions with low gas costs, such as the US.

In terms of industrial uses, the report acknowledges that gas will be hard to replace in most applications, as is demonstrated in a case study of the automotive industry. Meanwhile, in space heating, our analysis shows that while natural gas boilers maintain an operating cost advantage over heating oil, they are increasingly being matched or surpassed by modern air-source heat pumps. For more details, download the full report.

Key trends shaping the market

The second part of the study looks first at trends in the gas market, finding that five trends are reshaping the global gas landscape:

1. The shift from pipeline to LNG, with governments playing a bigger role in securing supply
2. Asia’s growing dominance in LNG demand, especially from China and Southeast Asia
3. The globalization of gas markets, with shrinking regional price gaps and more dynamic trading
4. The use of natural gas as a geopolitical tool, driving diversification and security-of-supply strategies
5. Rising interest in zero- and low-carbon gases, such as biomethane, despite scaling challenges

These trends mean that flexibility, optionality and the ability to adapt quickly are now critical for all market participants.

Strategies for countries and companies

At a universal level, companies and countries can implement no-regrets moves to get the transition started. These include reducing gas dependency where alternatives exist, investing in flexible infrastructure and decarbonizing the gas molecule itself. More specifically, success in the new gas game requires tailored strategies. Our study identifies four country archetypes – long-term exporters, current exporters/future importers, mature importers and emerging importers – each with distinct objectives and approaches. We define strategies for each, including around exporters sustaining disciplined exploration and importers building LNG capabilities.

For companies, the report outlines winning tactics for upstream producers, LNG traders, utilities and infrastructure owners. Building portfolio flexibility, securing destination-flexible contracts and leveraging digital tools are just a few of the strategies explored.

Risks, uncertainties and the path forward

To ensure the strategies can be successful, the report also assesses the significant uncertainties facing the gas market, from China’s emergence as a global LNG swing trader to the EU’s phase-out of Russian gas. These shifts create both risks and opportunities, amplifying price volatility and supply security concerns. We conclude that winners in the market will be those who act quickly to introduce no-regrets moves – reducing demand where possible, building agile trading capabilities and securing strategic infrastructure.

Download the full study to discover detailed strategies, data and recommendations for thriving in the new global gas game, or contact one of our experts.

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