Vietnam momentum shift

By Truong Bui

Vietnam stands on the threshold of a new economic era. With the National Assembly setting an ambitious 10% GDP growth target for 2026, the country signals its intent to leap far beyond current international forecasts. For senior decision-makers, the question is not just whether this target is achievable, but what it will take to get there and what risks and opportunities may arise as Vietnam works to sustain its remarkable momentum.

The stakes are high. Vietnam’s transformation over the past four decades has been nothing short of extraordinary, moving from an agrarian society to a global manufacturing powerhouse. Yet, as we at Roland Berger see it, the very engines that powered this ascent are now reaching their limits. The next phase will demand a fundamental shift in strategy, execution, and mindset.

Where does Vietnam stand today?

Vietnam’s economic success has been built on a combination of outward-facing reforms, strategic diplomacy, and a relentless focus on manufacturing and exports. The country’s integration into global supply chains, supported by a young workforce and a vast network of free trade agreements, has made it a premier trade gateway in Asia.

Beyond international trade, Vietnam is building a powerful domestic safety net. Rapid urbanization has led to a major milestone where the middle class now makes up the majority of households. This new domestic strength provides a resilient buffer, ensuring that the economy remains stable even when external global markets face volatility.

Vietnam’s structural transformation: What changed-and what didn’t?

Over the past three decades, Vietnam has transitioned from an agrarian society to an export-oriented manufacturing-led powerhouse. By seamlessly embedding itself into the international division of labor, Vietnam has utilized rapid industrialization as a ladder for income ascent, replicating the high-growth trajectory once seen in its Northeast Asian neighbors.

However, this transformation remains broad rather than deep. Compared to higher-income peers like Malaysia or Singapore, Vietnam’s industrial base is still heavily defined by assembly-linked activities. Vietnam must now shift from mere capacity to complexity, to ensure a greater share of value is created and retained domestically.

To break through, Vietnam must accelerate investment in innovation, upskill its workforce, and create the conditions for private sector R&D to flourish. Achieving this will require coordinated action across government, industry, and education, supported by targeted incentives, modernized institutions, and a willingness to experiment with new models.

Building the next growth engine: sectors, corridors, and enablers

From our analysis, we believe Vietnam’s path to double-digit growth lies in a comprehensive transformation framework. This means prioritizing three core sectors — advanced manufacturing, the digital and data economy, and the bioeconomy/agritech — while developing integrated economic corridors that concentrate resources and expertise.

At the same time, national “breakthrough enablers” are essential. These include mobilizing innovation capital at scale, building a high-skill workforce, and accelerating technology adoption through regulatory sandboxes and public-private partnerships.

The experience of leading economies like China, Singapore, and South Korea shows that such coordinated efforts can drive sustained, innovation-led growth.

Strategic choices for leaders

For executives and policymakers, the implications are clear. Achieving Vietnam’s ambitious targets will require disciplined execution, rapid public investment, and a relentless focus on productivity and innovation.

Effective execution will move the country beyond its maturing growth trajectory and open the path to sustained, innovation-driven, double-digit expansion in the decade ahead. The window of opportunity is open, but only for those prepared to act decisively and embrace change.

The full report explores these themes in depth, providing a strategic roadmap for Vietnam’s next era of growth. We invite you to explore the detailed analysis, case studies, and recommendations that can help shape your organization’s response to this pivotal moment.

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